Ngomhla ziyisi-6 kuNhlangulana, uMnyango Wezimboni Nobuchwepheshe Bolwazi ukhiphe amalayisense okuhweba e-5G kwa-China Telecom, China Mobile, China Unicom kanye ne-China Radio and Television, ememezela ngokusemthethweni ukufika kwenkathi ye-5G.
Njengesisekelo sokwakhiwa kwesendlalelo esibonakalayo senethiwekhi ye-5G, izingxenye eziyinhloko esiteshini sesisekelo kanye nemishini yokudlulisela, imboni ye-optical module iphinde yangenisa umjikelezo omusha wamathuba okuthuthukiswa. I-China Merchants Securities ibikezela ukuthi ukuhweba kwe-5G kuzokwandisa kakhulu isidingo samamojula optical. Ngokuzayo, ukufakwa kuzwelonke kwe-5G kuzodinga ukwakhiwa kweziteshi eziyisisekelo ezicishe zibe izigidi eziyi-10. Isidingo samakhulu ezigidi ezingaba khona zamamojula we-high speed optical sizodlula ama-yuan ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingu-30 emakethe yangaphambilini. Amadola ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane eziyishumi.
Ama-oda ayizinkulungwane eziyishumi okusetshenziswa okusha, ukudluliswa / ukufinyelela / ukuxhumana kwedijithali nezinye izimo zohlelo olubanzi, imakethe ibonakala ichuma; kodwa ubuso bokuchuma kunzima ukufihla ngemuva kwezinyathelo ezinzima, intengo yamamojula we-optical iyaqhubeka nokuwa, imboni inokuncintisana ngokweqile, ephezulu (imikhiqizo Inqubo yendawo ehamba kancane, i-chip core ingaphansi kwabantu, futhi ukuthuthukiswa okungalingani kochungechunge lwezimboni sekuphenduke izinkinga ezikhungethe uchungechunge lwezimboni zasekhaya.
Okukhangayo "okungaphambili"
Ngokwesibikezelo sakamuva semakethe yezokuxhumana ye-optical ekhishwe yi-LightCounting, i-5G ihlelelwe ukuthi isatshalaliswe noma ibe ngeminye yemicimbi emithathu emikhulu ezokwenza ukuthi imakethe ye-optical transceiver yomhlaba wonke ifinyelele ku-14% izinga lokukhula konyaka elihlanganisiwe (CAGR) phakathi kuka-2003 no-2024. . Ikhishiwe, ithathe isinyathelo sokuqala esibikezelweni semakethe.
U-Wei Leping, isekela lomqondisi omkhulu weKomidi Lobuchwepheshe Bezokuxhumana loMnyango Wezimboni Nobuchwepheshe Bolwazi, ukholelwa ukuthi imojula ye-5G yenkathi yokubona izoletha amathuba amakhulu. Ngokwesilinganiso somkhawulo we-uplink we-3Mbps nezindlela ezahlukene zokuxhumana, inani leziteshi ze-macro zangaphandle ze-5G ezidingekayo okungenani izikhathi ezingu-1.2-2 ze-4G; Ukufakwa ikakhulukazi kuncike emashumini ezigidi zeziteshi ezincane, futhi i-5G kulindeleke ukuthi ilethe amashumi ezigidi zamamojula optical 25/50/100Gbps. I-China Merchants Securities ibikezela ukuthi isikali sesiteshi esikhulu se-5G era sizofinyelela ezigidini ezi-5, futhi inani leziteshi ezincane lizofinyelela cishe ezigidini ezingu-10. Ukutshalwa kwezimali okuphelele kwabasebenzi abathathu abakhulu basekhaya kuseduze ne-165 billion US dollar, cishe i-50% enkulu kunesikhathi se-10G sama-dollar ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingu-110.
Isibikezelo seGuolian Securities futhi sinethemba, futhi sikholelwa ukuthi i-5G optical module izoba nemakethe ecishe ibe yizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingama-70. Kwabathwali be-5G, amamojula amasha we-25/50/100Gb/s amasha e-high-speed optical ethulwa kancane kancane ku-pre-transmission, ukudlulisa okuphakathi kanye nezingqimba zokufinyelela emuva. I-N× 100/200/400Gb/s amamojula we-optical high-speed asetshenziswa kabanzi ekuhlanganiseni kwe-backhaul kanye nezendlalelo eziyinhloko. Kwethulwe.
Ngaphezu kwalokho, ukushintshela kwesikhungo sedatha ekwakhiweni kwezigaba ezimbili nakho kuzokwandisa isidingo samamojula abonakalayo. Ngokusho kwezibalo nezibikezelo zika-Ovum, amamojula we-100Gb / s optical azoqala ukukhula ngokushesha ku-2017. Kulindeleke ukuthi ngo-2022, imali yokuthengisa ye-100Gb / s optical module izotholakala ngo-2022. Izodlula i-$ 7 billion.
Ithemba elibuhlungu
Ngaphansi kokugqugquzelwa kwezici ezihlukahlukene, isidingo samamojula optical siyenyuka, futhi amathemba angaphezulu mahle. Kodwa-ke, isimo samanje semakethe yokuxhumana ye-optical ukuthi intengo yamamojula iyancipha, futhi akulula kubakhiqizi ukwenza inkinga.
Isidingo esikhulu sokukhula okuqhumayo siholele ekuqhudelaneni okushubile emakethe, okubuye kwaholela ekwehleni kwamanani embonini yezokuxhumana optical. Ngokuya ngamamojula we-PON optical, amanani nawo ayehla. U-Dai Qiwei, umphathi womkhiqizo we-Guangxun terminal access product line, uthe umkhuba wokutshala imali womkhiqizo we-PON womhlaba wonke, i-10GPONOLT/I-ONUingase ingenise iwindi lesikhathi sokuqubuka okusheshayo, izinga lokukhula elihlanganisiwe lonyaka lilindeleke ukuthi lifinyelele ku-50% noma ngaphezulu, okuzoholela ekuqhudelaneni kwezimakethe okushubile. Intengo yemikhiqizo ye-PON optical module izokhombisa i-avalanche.
Ngakolunye uhlangothi, intengo yamamojula optical iyancipha unyaka nonyaka, futhi lokhu kuncipha kuzosheshisa ngenkathi ye-5G; ngakolunye uhlangothi, izithiyo zemakethe zokuncintisana ngokweqile emabhizinisini zivezwa kancane kancane, futhi impilo yemvelo iphukile. Njengomkhiqizi wasekhaya we-Optical module we-TOP3, u-Hisense Broadband CTO uLi Dawei waveza ukuthi “isimo sokungahlanganyeli emqhudelwaneni asisekho ngokuphelele emqhudelwaneni, futhi ukubamba iqhaza emqhudelwaneni kulingana nokuzibulala okungamahlalakhona” sekube yingqikithi yemboni.
Ukuthuthukiswa okungalingani kochungechunge lwezimboni nakho kuyiphuzu elibuhlungu embonini. Ngokombono wemali engenayo, embonini yezokuxhumana nge-optical, isamba senzuzo yenzuzo yabakhiqizi bemishini nabakhiqizi bama-chip siphezulu uma kuqhathaniswa, kuyilapho umkhawulo wenzuzo yonke ye-Foundry kanye nokupakishwa kwezingxenye ingaphansi kuka-10%. Ukutshalwa kwezimali okuphezulu kanye nenzuzo ephezulu kungasiza i-metabolism yenkampani. Ngokuphambene nalokho, kunzima ukuzuza ukuqamba okusha okuqhubekayo ngenzuzo ephansi yemali engenayo, okuyinselelo ezinkampanini ezihlobene.
Ukwengeza, inqubo yokwenziwa kwasendaweni kwama-chips asezingeni eliphezulu ihambe kancane, futhi isibe yingozi enkulu ekuthuthukisweni kwemboni yezokuxhumana yasekhaya. Eminyakeni eyishumi edlule, ngaphezu kwama-chip optoelectronic core, nakuba amabhizinisi asekhaya enenzuzo ekupakishweni kwe-chip namandla okukhiqiza amamojula, basathembele kakhulu kubahlinzeki bangaphandle ukuze bathole ama-chips asezingeni eliphezulu nama-chips kagesi, kanye nesidingo sokwenziwa kwasendaweni. kuyaphuthuma.
Akunakuphikwa ukuthi ngokombono wayo yonke imakethe ye-5G optical module, opharetha kanye nabakhiqizi abakhulu bemishini batshala imali ngenkuthalo, futhi ikhekhe likhulu ngokwanele; nokho-ke, uma ungena ezinhlwini zokudla, lelikhekhe liyababa kancane.